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Poisson model rates Laval at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Rouen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rouen make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Final. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rouen have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rouen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 1.00 for Rouen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rouen in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Laval, 0 for Rouen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.45 xG and Rouen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.000 / defence 1.081 | Rouen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.253. Data: 68 Laval games / 0 Rouen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Rouen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Rouen | Competition: Ligue 2, Final | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (1 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 1 | Rouen 0W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Laval 1 – 1 Rouen • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Laval 0% / Draw 100% / Rouen 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 29% / away 28% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 54% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D • Rouen (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D • Laval home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Laval 1.40 PPG vs Rouen 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Laval): Poisson xG of 1.45 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Rouen): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.60 (48% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Laval 7/10, Rouen 1/1; Poisson BTTS probability 54% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Laval 1.45 / Rouen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.000 / def 1.081 | Rouen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Laval (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rouen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Rouen kick off?
Laval vs Rouen kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Rouen?
Laval 1 - 0 Rouen.
Where is Laval vs Rouen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Rouen part of?
Laval vs Rouen is a Final fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Rouen?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 42% chance of winning, Rouen a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Rouen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Laval and Rouen will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Rouen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rouen?
• Record (1 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 1 | Rouen 0W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Laval 1 – 1 Rouen • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Laval 0% / Draw 100% / Rouen 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 29% / away 28% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.60 (48% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 54% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Laval and Rouen in?
• Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D • Rouen (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D • Laval home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Laval 1.40 PPG vs Rouen 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Laval): Poisson xG of 1.45 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Rouen): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.60 (48% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Laval 7/10, Rouen 1/1; Poisson BTTS probability 54% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Laval vs Rouen?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture