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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 30, as Laval and Reims drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.96 xG and Reims 1.36 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Reims attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 25% | Draw 31% | Reims 44%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 40%, Reims 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Reims's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.17 PPG, Reims 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights