Laval vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 0.90 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Laval's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 49% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 42% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.27 xG and Guingamp 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.038 / defence 1.151 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Data: 45 Laval games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Laval 60% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Laval 1.27 / Guingamp 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.038 / def 1.151 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 5W.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.04) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.82
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Laval xG
Total xG
2.65
1.39
Guingamp xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Laval and 1.39 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Laval have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 9W 16D 20L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 14W 12D 19L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 0.96 PPG, Guingamp on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 9W 16D 20L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Guingamp away?
Laval's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.05 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Laval) and 59% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Laval's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Laval's recent games and 59% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Guingamp tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.