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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and Guingamp share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval and Guingamp finished level at 2-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.98 xG and Guingamp 1.44 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 24% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 46%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 39%, Guingamp 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights