🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Laval 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.88 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Estac Troyes attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 26% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 44%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 38%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.32 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights