Laval 3-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Laval welcome Dunkerque to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 1.40 PPG versus Dunkerque's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Laval, 1 for Dunkerque and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Laval in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 50% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.26 xG and Dunkerque 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.925 / defence 1.051 | Dunkerque attack 0.992 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.117. Data: 46 Laval games / 46 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 34%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Laval 70% | Dunkerque 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 39% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Laval 1.26 / Dunkerque 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.925 / def 1.051 | Dunkerque attack 0.992 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Laval (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dunkerque xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Dunkerque kick off?
Laval vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Dunkerque?
Laval 3 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Laval vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Dunkerque part of?
Laval vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Laval and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dunkerque?
Record (2 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Laval and Dunkerque in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Laval vs Dunkerque?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Laval's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.64
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Laval xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Dunkerque xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Laval and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Laval and 1.16 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval's recent record stands at 18W 12D 16L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 18L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.43 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Laval have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 9W 7D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.23 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Laval or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Laval's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Laval
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Laval have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Dunkerque 0-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Dunkerque?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 64%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Laval) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 32%; Dunkerque in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Laval's games and 50% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Laval's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Dunkerque 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Dunkerque 3-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.26 xG and Dunkerque 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 39% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 34%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.43 PPG, Dunkerque 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.