Laval vs Caen – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Caen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.70 xG and Caen 1.44 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.08 / defence 1.31 against Caen attack 1.04 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 44% | Draw 24% | Caen 33%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 46%, Caen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Caen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.42 PPG, Caen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights