Laval vs Caen – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Laval's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.26
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Laval xG
Total xG
3.13
1.44
Caen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Laval and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Laval and 1.44 for Caen, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.