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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 23, as Laval and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.69 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.67 / defence 1.14 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 19% | Draw 28% | Annecy 52%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 38%, Annecy 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Laval's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.20 PPG, Annecy 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights