Guingamp 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Guingamp welcome Valenciennes to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valenciennes — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.00 PPG, Valenciennes 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Guingamp's 0% and Valenciennes's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.02 xG and Valenciennes 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Valenciennes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Guingamp games / 1 Valenciennes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 40%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Valenciennes 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.02 / Valenciennes 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Valenciennes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Valenciennes xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Valenciennes kick off?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Guingamp vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Valenciennes part of?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 25% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Valenciennes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Valenciennes (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.98) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Valenciennes xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.00 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Valenciennes in 0%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Valenciennes in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Guingamp or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Guingamp
3
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Guingamp's recent matches and 0% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Guingamp's recent games and 0% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 2, as Guingamp and Valenciennes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.02 xG and Valenciennes 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Valenciennes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 25% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 40%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 0%, Valenciennes 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.00 PPG, Valenciennes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valenciennes scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.