Auxerre 3-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 43%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Auxerre welcome Grenoble to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Auxerre have the edge — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.94 xG and Grenoble 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Grenoble attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.845 / away 1.392. Data: 1 Auxerre games / 1 Grenoble games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 22% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 43%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Grenoble 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 22% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 0.94 / Grenoble 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Grenoble attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.845 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Grenoble xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Grenoble kick off?
Auxerre vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Auxerre 3 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Auxerre vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Grenoble part of?
Auxerre vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 22% chance of winning, Grenoble a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Grenoble in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Grenoble (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.97) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
22%
4.51
35%
2.84
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.30
1.36
Grenoble xG
4.51
22%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
6%
17.57
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.36 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Grenoble in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Grenoble runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Grenoble have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Grenoble 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Grenoble?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Auxerre's recent matches and 0% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Auxerre's matches and 100% of Grenoble's.
Do Auxerre and Grenoble tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Grenoble 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.94 xG and Grenoble 1.36 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Grenoble attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 22% | Draw 35% | Grenoble 43%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 100%, Grenoble 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.