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Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.52 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights