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Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 25, as Guingamp and Rodez drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.54 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Rodez attack 1.20 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 25% | Rodez 39%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Rodez 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights