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Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rodez.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Rodez 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Rodez attack 1.30 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Rodez 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.43 PPG, Rodez 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights