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Poisson rates Guingamp at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rodez — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.60 PPG versus Rodez's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 3 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Rodez, with 4 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.

The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rodez trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 43% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Rodez 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.193 / defence 0.952 | Rodez attack 1.305 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.028. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Guingamp games / 56 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Rodez 50%.

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