Guingamp 3-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Guingamp have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.60 PPG versus Rodez's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Guingamp hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Rodez and 4 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Guingamp 2–1 Rodez — a Guingamp win.
The head-to-head data gives Guingamp an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 43% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Rodez 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.193 / defence 0.952 | Rodez attack 1.305 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.028. Rodez have an above-average attack rating of 1.305, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Guingamp's last 56 games and Rodez's last 56.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.03 | Draw 4.16 | Rodez 3.74. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Guingamp 3 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Guingamp 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Guingamp 1.80 / Rodez 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.193 / def 0.952 | Rodez attack 1.305 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 17 January 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 49% chance of winning, Rodez a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 56 games and Rodez's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.16
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.08
1.28
Rodez xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
4%
22.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.28 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 22W 14D 20L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 18L across 56 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.43 PPG, Rodez on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 10W 9D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.64 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Rodez have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Rodez away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Rodez.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 39%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 57% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Guingamp's recent matches and 64% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Guingamp's matches and 57% of Rodez's.
Do Guingamp and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Guingamp's recent matches and 86% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Rodez 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Rodez attack 1.30 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Rodez 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.43 PPG, Rodez 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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