Guingamp 3-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.60 PPG versus Rodez's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 3 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Rodez, with 4 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 43% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Rodez 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.193 / defence 0.952 | Rodez attack 1.305 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.028. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Guingamp games / 56 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Rodez 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Guingamp 1.80 / Rodez 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.193 / def 0.952 | Rodez attack 1.305 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 49% chance of winning, Rodez a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
Record (7 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 4 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.16
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.08
1.28
Rodez xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
4%
22.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.28 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 22W 14D 20L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 18L across 56 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.43 PPG, Rodez on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 10W 9D 9L from 28 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.64 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Rodez have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Rodez away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 39%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 57% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Guingamp's recent matches and 64% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Guingamp's matches and 57% of Rodez's.
Do Guingamp and Rodez tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rodez in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Rodez 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.80 xG and Rodez 1.28 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Rodez attack 1.30 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 24% | Rodez 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Rodez 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.43 PPG, Rodez 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.