Guingamp vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Reims (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face Reims.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 4W 6D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Reims 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Reims in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Reims 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.23 xG and Reims 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.114 / defence 1.188 | Reims attack 1.247 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Reims have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Guingamp games / 41 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 24% | Reims 51%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Reims 1.96. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Reims 50%.

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