🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Reims cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Guingamp 0-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.98 xG and Reims 0.90 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reims outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Reims attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 35% | Draw 34% | Reims 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Reims 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.52 PPG, Reims 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights