Guingamp 0-4 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 0W 7D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93 away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Guingamp, 0.70 for RED Star FC 93 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Guingamp have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RED Star FC 93 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Guingamp 0W, RED Star FC 93 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–3 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus RED Star FC 93 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 61% | RED Star FC 93 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.68 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.179 / defence 1.217 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.961 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.170. Data: 36 Guingamp games / 36 RED Star FC 93 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | RED Star FC 93 3.23. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | RED Star FC 93 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Guingamp 1.68 / RED Star FC 93 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.179 / def 1.217 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.961 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.37
RED Star FC 93 xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Guingamp 0 - 4 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 45% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 2W.
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.18x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (0.96x) against Guingamp's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.08
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.05
1.37
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.37 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 16W 5D 15L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 15L across 36 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Guingamp against 1.08 for RED Star FC 93. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.08 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 5D 15L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Guingamp's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.65 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 53%, RED Star FC 93 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Guingamp) and 41% (RED Star FC 93). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Guingamp's games and 65% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Guingamp's matches and 41% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RED Star FC 93 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 0-4 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.68 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.37 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.7 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 1.22 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 45% | Draw 25% | RED Star FC 93 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 61%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.