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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guingamp and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 14, as Guingamp and PAU drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.91 xG and PAU 1.34 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against PAU attack 1.01 / defence 1.37, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | PAU 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 62%, PAU 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

PAU's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.51 PPG, PAU 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights