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Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Paris FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.26 / defence 0.85 against Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Paris FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Paris FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights