Guingamp 2-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Niort travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Niort — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Niort have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Guingamp have won 1, Niort 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2022, ended Guingamp 0–0 Niort — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Niort trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 61% versus Niort 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 49% | Niort 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.55 xG and Niort 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.084 / defence 1.081 | Niort attack 0.635 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Niort's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Guingamp's last 74 games and Niort's last 74.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.81 | Draw 3.82 | Niort 5.36. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Guingamp 70% (last 10 home games) | Niort 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 37 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Guingamp 1.55 / Niort 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.084 / def 1.081 | Niort attack 0.635 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Niort xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Niort FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Niort kick off?
Guingamp vs Niort kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 26 May 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Niort.
Where is Guingamp vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Niort part of?
Guingamp vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 37) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Niort a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Guingamp vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.08) and Niort's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 74 games and Niort's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.82
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.34
0.79
Niort xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
25.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.79 for Niort, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 28W 23D 23L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 19W 17D 38L from 74 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.49 PPG from their last 37 home games (15W 10D 12L).
On the road, Niort have gone 7W 9D 21L from their last 37 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.96 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
Guingamp (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Guingamp vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Niort in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 28W 23D 23L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while Niort have gone 19W 17D 38L in their last 74 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Niort away?
Guingamp's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.49 PPG; Niort away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 26 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Niort specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 2, Niort have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 May 2023: Guingamp 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Niort?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Niort see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 68%, Niort 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 43% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Guingamp's recent matches and 35% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Guingamp's recent matches and 60% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Niort 2-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.55 xG and Niort 0.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Niort attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 49%, Niort 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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