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Poisson model rates Nancy at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Nancy make the trip to Stade de Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Nancy have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nancy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Nancy's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nancy are 0.50 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across 10 previous meetings, Guingamp are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 5 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Guingamp winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Guingamp and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Current Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Guingamp sit 11th on 40 points, 3 places and 3 points ahead of Nancy in 14th.

At home this season, Guingamp have gone 6W 5D 6L. On the road, Nancy's record stands at 4W 7D 6L this term.

Trading & In-Play

Guingamp — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Nancy — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Nancy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Nancy 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.14 xG and Nancy 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Nancy attack 1.002 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Nancy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 31% | Nancy 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Nancy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Nancy are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nancy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Nancy 70%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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