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Poisson rates Rodez at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Annecy encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Rodez — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rodez's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Rodez carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Rodez sit 5th on 58 points, 2 places and 6 points ahead of Annecy in 7th.

On home turf, Rodez's Ligue 2 record reads 8W 7D 2L this term. Away from home, Annecy have posted 8W 1D 8L in Ligue 2 this season. Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.

In-Play Data

Rodez trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Annecy trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 74% and Annecy 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 50% | Annecy 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.50 xG and Annecy 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.059 / defence 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.107 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Rodez games / 34 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rodez 40% | Draw 28% | Annecy 32%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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