Guingamp 2-2 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade de Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nancy have collected 1.38 PPG across 8 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Guingamp against 1.38 for Nancy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Guingamp 1W, Nancy 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Nancy — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 62% versus Nancy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 75% | Nancy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.46 xG and Nancy 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.117 / defence 1.205 | Nancy attack 0.924 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.252. Data: 42 Guingamp games / 8 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Nancy 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Nancy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Nancy 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Nancy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Guingamp 1.46 / Nancy 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.117 / def 1.205 | Nancy attack 0.924 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Nancy xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nancy kick off?
Guingamp vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Nancy?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Nancy.
Where is Guingamp vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nancy part of?
Guingamp vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Nancy a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Guingamp and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Nancy (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Nancy's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.92x) against Guingamp's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.57
25%
4.00
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Nancy xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.39 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Guingamp against 1.38 for Nancy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nancy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Nancy have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nancy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.75 PPG; Nancy away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nancy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Nancy 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Nancy?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Nancy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Guingamp and 75% for Nancy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Guingamp's matches and 75% of Nancy's.
Do Guingamp and Nancy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nancy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Nancy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Nancy finished level at 2-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.46 xG and Nancy 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.12 / defence 1.21 against Nancy attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Nancy 36%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 75%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.62 PPG, Nancy 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.