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Dominant Metz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Guingamp 0-3 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and Metz 0.66 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Metz outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Metz attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Metz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Metz's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Metz 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights