🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lorient defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.56 xG and Lorient 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lorient outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Lorient attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 49% | Draw 25% | Lorient 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Lorient 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Lorient's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Lorient 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights