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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guingamp and Le Mans share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp and Le Mans finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.90 xG and Le Mans 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Mans outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Le Mans attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 59% | Draw 22% | Le Mans 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights