🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Laval 2-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.11 xG and Laval 1.16 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Laval attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Laval 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Laval's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Laval 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights