Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Laval at 37%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Laval travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Laval in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Laval 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Laval 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.11 xG and Laval 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.995 / defence 1.204 | Laval attack 0.792 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.216. Data: 46 Guingamp games / 45 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 60% | Laval 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 0 | Laval 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Guingamp 9 – 5 Laval • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Guingamp 67% / Draw 0% / Laval 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Guingamp (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Laval as more likely (home 34% / draw 29% / away 37%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.27 (40% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 46% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D • Laval (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D • Guingamp home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Laval away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: Guingamp lead by 0.70 PPG (1.50 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Guingamp): Poisson projects 1.11 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Laval): Poisson projects 1.16 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.27 (40% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 46% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Guingamp on PPG but Poisson rates Laval higher (37% vs 34% for Guingamp) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Guingamp 1.11 / Laval 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.995 / def 1.204 | Laval attack 0.792 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Laval (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Laval xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Laval kick off?
Guingamp vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Laval.
Where is Guingamp vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Laval part of?
Guingamp vs Laval is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Laval a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Guingamp and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
• Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 0 | Laval 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Guingamp 9 – 5 Laval • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Guingamp 67% / Draw 0% / Laval 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Guingamp (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Laval as more likely (home 34% / draw 29% / away 37%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.27 (40% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 46% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Guingamp and Laval in?
• Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D • Laval (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D • Guingamp home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Laval away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: Guingamp lead by 0.70 PPG (1.50 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Guingamp): Poisson projects 1.11 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Laval): Poisson projects 1.16 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.27 (40% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 46% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Guingamp on PPG but Poisson rates Laval higher (37% vs 34% for Guingamp) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs Laval?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture