Guingamp 2-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Laval travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Laval — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.50 (Laval). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Laval's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Laval in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 42% versus Laval 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Laval 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.24 xG and Laval 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.095 / defence 1.043 | Laval attack 0.997 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.039. Data: 65 Guingamp games / 65 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 28% | Laval 32%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Laval 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 28% | Laval 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.24 / Laval 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.095 / def 1.043 | Laval attack 0.997 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Laval xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Laval kick off?
Guingamp vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Laval.
Where is Guingamp vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Laval part of?
Guingamp vs Laval is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 40% chance of winning, Laval a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 0 | Laval 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Laval in?
Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Laval (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.09) and Laval's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.55
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
Laval xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.08 for Laval, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 15D 23L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval's form line: 27W 17D 21L from 65 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.48 PPG, Laval on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.41 PPG from 32 outings (12W 9D 11L).
On the road, Laval have gone 15W 9D 8L from 32 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.17 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Laval in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Laval have gone 27W 17D 21L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.41 PPG; Laval away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Laval in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Laval specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Laval have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Laval?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Laval see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 38%, Laval 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Guingamp) and 38% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Laval in 44%; Guingamp have failed to score in 34% of games; Laval in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 34% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Laval tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Laval in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Laval 2-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and Laval 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Laval landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Laval attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 40% | Draw 28% | Laval 32%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Laval 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Laval's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Laval 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.