Guingamp vs Dunkerque – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Dunkerque have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Guingamp 4W, Dunkerque 4W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2026, ended 0–3 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Dunkerque 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 59% | Dunkerque 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.91 xG and Dunkerque 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.206 / defence 1.016 | Dunkerque attack 0.969 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Guingamp games / 45 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Dunkerque 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Guingamp 1.91 / Dunkerque 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.206 / def 1.016 | Dunkerque attack 0.969 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dunkerque xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 51% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Record (10 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.21) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.97x) against Guingamp's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.46
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.24
1.34
Dunkerque xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.34 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 12D 20L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (15W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Guingamp against 1.26 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.52 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dunkerque away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 6 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dunkerque won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2026, when Dunkerque 3-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 41%, Dunkerque 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 64% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 27% of games; Dunkerque in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Guingamp's recent matches and 64% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Guingamp's matches and 64% of Dunkerque's.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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