Guingamp vs Dunkerque – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Dunkerque have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Guingamp 4W, Dunkerque 3W, 2D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Dunkerque — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Dunkerque 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Dunkerque 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.94 xG and Dunkerque 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.136 / defence 1.064 | Dunkerque attack 0.986 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.205. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 41 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Dunkerque 4.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.

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