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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Dunkerque 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 1.32 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.27 against Dunkerque attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 35%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Dunkerque 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.51 PPG, Dunkerque 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights