Guingamp 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Dunkerque have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Guingamp 3W, Dunkerque 3W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Dunkerque 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Dunkerque 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.063 / defence 1.273 | Dunkerque attack 0.889 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.164. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 40 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 35%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Guingamp 1.41 / Dunkerque 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.063 / def 1.273 | Dunkerque attack 0.889 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dunkerque xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Record (7 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.06) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.89x) against Guingamp's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.90
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.72
1.32
Dunkerque xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.32 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 5D 17L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.59 PPG from 41 outings (19W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Guingamp against 1.59 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.39 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 5D 17L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dunkerque away?
Guingamp's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.70 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 45%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Guingamp) and 30% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Guingamp's recent games and 30% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 1.32 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.27 against Dunkerque attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 35%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Dunkerque 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.51 PPG, Dunkerque 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.