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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Dunkerque have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Dunkerque away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Guingamp 3W, Dunkerque 3W, 1D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Dunkerque — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Dunkerque 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Dunkerque 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Dunkerque 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.063 / defence 1.273 | Dunkerque attack 0.889 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.164. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 40 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 35%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Dunkerque 40%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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