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Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 1.35 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 48% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 29%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 67%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights