Guingamp 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Clermont Foot trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 67% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.196 / defence 1.227 | Clermont Foot attack 0.857 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.285. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Guingamp games / 44 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 3.45. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 70% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Guingamp 1.80 / Clermont Foot 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.196 / def 1.227 | Clermont Foot attack 0.857 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Clermont Foot xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot part of?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 48% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Guingamp and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.35
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.16
1.35
Clermont Foot xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.35 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 21W 7D 17L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 10W 15D 20L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 7D 17L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 10W 15D 20L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Clermont Foot away?
Guingamp's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.73 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Guingamp and 50% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Guingamp's matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Guingamp and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 1.35 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 48% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 29%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 67%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.