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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Clermont Foot trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 56% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 67% | Clermont Foot 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.80 xG and Clermont Foot 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.196 / defence 1.227 | Clermont Foot attack 0.857 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.285. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Guingamp games / 44 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 3.45. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 70% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.

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