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Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 0.84 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 59% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 18%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights