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Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Boulogne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Boulogne 3-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.19 xG and Boulogne 1.24 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Boulogne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 35% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 37%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 68%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Boulogne's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Boulogne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights