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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Boulogne travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Boulogne's away record: 3W 3D 3L from 9 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.00 (Boulogne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Boulogne and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Boulogne trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 58% and Boulogne 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 68% | Boulogne 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.19 xG and Boulogne 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.991 / defence 1.264 | Boulogne attack 0.833 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.177. Data: 51 Guingamp games / 17 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Boulogne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Boulogne 56%.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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