🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Guingamp and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, as Guingamp and Bastia drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.58 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 54% | Draw 25% | Bastia 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 54%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Bastia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Bastia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights