Guingamp vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Annecy (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Annecy arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 4 for Annecy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Annecy 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Annecy 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.099 / defence 1.070 | Annecy attack 1.075 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.274. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 39 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 30% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Annecy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | Annecy 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 30% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Guingamp 1.41 / Annecy 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.099 / def 1.070 | Annecy attack 1.075 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Annecy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Annecy xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Annecy kick off?
Guingamp vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Annecy part of?
Guingamp vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
Record (8 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 2 | Annecy 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.10) and Annecy's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.07x) against Guingamp's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.32
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Annecy xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.47 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 12D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (18W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (10W 1D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.44 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.42 PPG; Annecy away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Annecy 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 37%, Annecy 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Guingamp) and 63% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Annecy in 32%; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Guingamp's recent matches and 47% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Guingamp's matches and 63% of Annecy's.
Do Guingamp and Annecy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Annecy in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.