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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Guingamp 0-3 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Annecy attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.53 PPG, Annecy 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights