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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Amiens 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Amiens 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Amiens 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights