Guingamp 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Guingamp — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Guingamp's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Amiens and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Guingamp 0–0 Amiens — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Amiens trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Amiens 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 51% | Amiens 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.93 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.154 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 1.092 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.084. Data: built from Guingamp's last 51 games and Amiens's last 51.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.83 | Draw 4.53 | Amiens 4.33. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Guingamp 1.93 / Amiens 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.154 / def 0.999 | Amiens attack 1.092 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Amiens xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Amiens a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 51 games and Amiens's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.53
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
Amiens xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
3%
29.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.18 for Amiens, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 13D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.43 PPG from 51 outings (18W 19D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.37 PPG, Amiens on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Amiens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 19D 14L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.40 PPG; Amiens away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Amiens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Guingamp.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 40%, Amiens 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Amiens in 32%; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Amiens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 40% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Guingamp's recent matches and 72% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.93 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 1.09 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 51%, Amiens 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Amiens 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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