Clermont Foot 1-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet in-form Metz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Clermont Foot vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Metz travel to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Metz — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Metz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 2 for Metz and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Metz trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 47% versus Metz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Metz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Metz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.855 / defence 1.108 | Metz attack 0.830 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.084. Data: 13 Clermont Foot games / 13 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 29% | Metz 31%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Metz (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Clermont Foot 60% | Metz 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 29% | Metz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 1.20 / Metz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.855 / def 1.108 | Metz attack 0.830 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Metz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Metz kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Metz.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Metz part of?
Clermont Foot vs Metz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 40% chance of winning, Metz a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Metz?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 2 | Metz 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Metz in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Metz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
40%
2.47
29%
3.45
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.19
1.00
Metz xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.00 for Metz, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 47 games, going 9W 13D 25L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (15W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.85 PPG, Metz on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 7D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (8W 2D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.19 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Metz in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 13D 25L in their last 47 games (0.85 PPG), while Metz have gone 15W 8D 24L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.96 PPG; Metz away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Metz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
3
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Metz have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Metz 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 48%, Metz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Clermont Foot) and 52% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 48% of games; Metz in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 52% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 52% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Metz tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Metz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Metz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 14, as Clermont Foot and Metz drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Metz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Metz attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 29% | Metz 31%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Metz 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.85 PPG, Metz 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.