Grenoble vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Grenoble against 1.00 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grenoble have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rodez in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 5W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Grenoble winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grenoble 54% and Rodez 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 44% | Rodez 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.12 xG and Rodez 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.741 / defence 1.155 | Rodez attack 1.001 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Grenoble games / 45 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 27% | Draw 25% | Rodez 48%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.08. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 60% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 27% | Draw 25% | Rodez 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Grenoble 1.12 / Rodez 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.741 / def 1.155 | Rodez attack 1.001 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Rodez (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Rodez xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Rodez kick off?
Grenoble vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Stade des Alpes.
Where is Grenoble vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Rodez part of?
Grenoble vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 27% chance of winning, Rodez a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Grenoble and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
Record (10 meetings): Grenoble 5W | Draws 2 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.74x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Grenoble's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
27%
3.69
25%
3.96
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.69
1.57
Rodez xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.72
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.57 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 17D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.61 PPG from 46 outings (20W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 6W 12D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.41 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.30 PPG; Rodez away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Grenoble
2
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 5, Rodez have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Rodez 0-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Rodez?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 52%, Rodez 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Grenoble) and 56% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 35% of games; Rodez in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Grenoble's games and 70% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grenoble vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Grenoble's recent games and 56% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Rodez tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Rodez in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More French football predictions →