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Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Reims finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.12 xG and Reims 1.26 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Reims attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 33% | Draw 28% | Reims 39%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, Reims 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Reims's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.29 PPG, Reims 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights