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Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Boulogne finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.01 xG and Boulogne 0.96 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Boulogne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Boulogne attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 36% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 33%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 46%, Boulogne 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Boulogne's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.19 PPG, Boulogne 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights