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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble and Ajaccio finished level at 2-2 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.17 xG and Ajaccio 0.74 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajaccio outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Ajaccio attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grenoble 46% | Draw 31% | Ajaccio 23%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 46%, Ajaccio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grenoble's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Ajaccio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.37 PPG, Ajaccio 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights